At the very least the coldest air in many, many years is heading for Oklahoma as we head towards the weekend into next week. Let me put a HUGE DISCLAIMER on this Forecast as the saying goes “Fool me Once Shame on You, Fool me Twice Shame on Me” All those who have studied Meteorology should have the full understanding and knowledge that Winter Weather events can be extremely difficult to forecast. I would NOT put much stock in ANY model and or base a forecast on ANY model outside about 3-4 Days at this point. On top of the models flip, flopping worse than a politician you have to look at this from a Historical Prospective or at least I do when trying to put together a Forecast we’ve had a many Winter Weather events occur in mid to late December which have been Moderate to even High-End so that holds some weight when making this forecast.
The map above shows Temperatures early Friday AM: The Arctic Front arrives in Oklahoma late Thu night into early Friday AM. It Should push into Central OK before Daybreak Friday.. The coldest air should lag behind a few days it is entirely possible portions of Oklahoma stays in the TEENS for high’s by the early to middle part of next week!
The Map above is Future Radar for Friday AM showing Light Freezing Rain/Sleet trying to form along and just behind the Arctic Front (Blue Line is the freezing line) After this is when things are as clear as mud. Models show this activity decreasing but I’m not so sure I buy into it all just yet. If we get just enough to fall we could have isolated issues on the Bridges/Overpasses come Friday AM. Main roads should still be fine with ground temperatures still being rather warm at that point. This activity could linger a bit longer than models are advertising so don’t be caught off guard and just keep checking back for the latest information over the next few days!
Friday Evening – Midday Saturday: It appears we will get a lull or break if you will in the Precip but a second wave in the form of Light/Moderate Snow will arrive in Oklahoma late Saturday night into Christmas Eve Morning.. Let’s take a look at what the GFS Model is showing for Snow Currently. Again DO NOT take this at face value (I’m Not) These amount’s could be higher and or depending on temperatures at the 850 mb level this could possibly even be Freezing Rain or Sleet especially for areas S/E of the Oklahoma City Metro area.
According to the GFS most areas will pick up a Dusting to maybe 1-1.5 inches by Christmas morning. Again let me stress take this with a Grain of Salt as it will LIKELY CHANGE! If the system strengthens, slows down or speeds up it could greatly impact our amounts! So please keep checking back for updated information..
Now Let’s Talk about the COLD!
Potentially some of the Coldest Air in many years could arrive in Oklahoma next week! We could be talking HIGHS for some locations in the Teens with Lows in the single digits to even below Zero! Lets take a look at the lows when you wake up Christmas Morning! BRRRRRR The Wind Chill or what it actually feels like on your skin could be at Zero or Below Christmas Morning!
Christmas Afternoon: Temperatures will not warm up much most areas will struggle to reach the middle 20s! We should be dry by early afternoon with any lingering flurries moving out of the region. This very cold weather looks to get even colder heading into Tuesday the 26th and Wednesday the 27th!
Let me be clear one more time this is a ever evolving forecast and as I said it’s hard to put much weight in any one forecast model at this point. Thus I would HIGHLY recommend you check the weather often over the next few days especially if you have travel plans anywhere across the Central / Southern Plains over the Holiday Weekend. This Forecast could EASILY turn on a dime and become something much bigger. At the present time I don’t see this being a High-Impact event but things can and do often change so just have a healthy respect for mother nature as you should and as always I’ll keep you ahead of the storm! -Todd