After a pretty calm first half of May the second half is about to get very busy starting on Monday afternoon/evening (Mainly in the OK/TX Panhandles) Storms could produce Hail up to 1.75″ (Golf Ball size) and Damaging winds in excess of 65 mph. The Tornado threat is low Tomorrow but not zero!
Tuesday: The dryline will start to approach from the Eastern TX panhandle before retreating westward late in the day just as a more significant shortwave trough passes south of the four corners region. As a result storms should erupt across the Eastern TX Panhandle into far Western Oklahoma likely after 4PM through Midnight. All modes of severe weather are possible including hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and a few Tornadoes. The Tornado threat will likely be greatest between 5-9 pm in and near my ENHANCED RISK zone from the Eastern most counties in the TX panhandle into far Western OK. (See map below for Tuesday Afternoon/Evening) Note: Storms COULD move into Central OK and along the I-35 corridor AFTER midnight through about 4AM ON early Wednesday morning. The main threats would be isolated pockets of large hail, damaging winds in excess of 65-70 mph. The Tornado threat will be VERY LOW during this time!
We get a break on Wednesday before ANOTHER round of Severe Weather arrives on Thursday afternoon/evening. This setup looks OKAY not ideal as timing is somewhat in question but a storm system will approach as the dry line starts to push into Western OK during the day on Thursday. I won’t bore you with all the details but this is one to watch as we will have AMPLE instability with cape values possibly exceeding 4000 Jkg across Central OK, Dewpoints will be near 70 combined with plenty of deep layer shear. Bottom line If things come together just right Thursday could potentially be a pretty big day but too many unknowns at this time for me to justify a higher risk at the moment. (See Map Below For Thursday)
Confidence in the forecast decreases further beyond Thursday but it appears rain/storm chances will continue into the weekend as a cold front moves into the region and the main part of the mid to upper trough remains west of our region through at least early Sun. Even though we have yet to work out the fine details regarding severe potential it appears Heavy Rainfall will be likely by mid to late week with some areas possibly receiving over 4 inches by the end of the week.
Please don’t let this be the last time you check the weather this week! We are going into a very active stretch where all modes of Severe weather will be possible especially Tue and again Thu through next weekend. Remember be prepared, NOT scared! -Todd