Here we are again nearly the same song and dance a very tricky forecast is in the making for Friday. Friday/Saturday are both days which have been on many forecasters minds for nearly a week as we have known this setup has some real potential to be a higher end day. That said as you may know over the past several days the previous “outlooks” have shifted the Enhanced risk further south with the main threat zone being from the OKC Metro down into Southern OK and Northern TX, also the timing has changed a bit with it being more of a late evening, overnight event. As we talk about a lot in Oklahoma & Texas “THE CAP” will be a factor for any early development tomorrow.
(See Graphic below for a better understanding of just how THE “CAP” works. ) Graphic courtesy of the National Weather Service Office in Kansas City, MO
So now the big question is WILL THE “CAP” break across our region tomorrow? Well in all honesty NO forecaster can say with 100 percent certainty if it will because MANY, MANY factors come into play
that could ultimately breach the cap by early evening. There are a couple ways to overcome the “CAP” one being unstable air punching through from below; and the other being Unstable air getting out from underneath the cap’s edge and firing straight up once it finds itself outside of the bubble of that cap. Both of these situations are plausible IMO but the likelihood is very slim around 10-15% or less mainly from E Of W.Falls,Tx over to around Ardmore. The further north you go the harder it would likely be for the “CAP” to break any earlier then say 9 or 10 pm.
So the area to watch between 5 – 8 pm for EARLY development would be from East of Lawton to just East of Wichita Falls over to south of the OKC Metro and down towards Ardmore.
*IF* and again a BIG *IF* but if storms were to go up early they would be in an environment for explosive super cell development including producing hail up to baseball size, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph
and even Tornadoes. HOWEVER, all that said it appears at the moment at least that storms will hold off until the 8-10 pm Time-Frame and become widespread rather quickly even if storms hold off until then
we should have a small window likely between 9pm – midnight for isolated Tornadoes mainly down across Southern OK into Western North TX (See graphic below)
Below is the OFFICIAL SPC Outlook for Friday anywhere in the ENHANCED zone storms are LIKELY from 8 pm through the morning hours on Saturday producing all modes of severe weather including very heavy rainfall that likely could lead to some flash flooding, Damaging winds in excess of 65 mph and Large hail up to the size of Tennis balls. Isolated nocturnal tornadoes cannot be ruled out through the night but the overall threat Tornado threat will slowly decrease after midnight.
Another Severe threat may take shape on Saturday mainly across SE OK INTO NE TX along and East of Highway 69/75. Flash Flooding will also be a concern through much of the weekend even as the main severe threat pushes to our east moderate to heavy rain will linger through Sunday afternoon. Flood watches have been posted for portions of Central into Eastern OK where some localized areas could pick up as much as 5 inches in localized spots through Sunday!
Please stay tuned on Friday for the very latest information as this Severe Weather situation evolves. -Todd